Yearning for Empire
Reining in Russia’s Imperial Impulses…and Our Own
Why do imperial powers often act in ways obviously contrary to their own long-term interests? This conundrum dates back at least 2,400 years, to the Peloponnesian Wars, when Athens lost its navy and its imperial ambitions by overextending itself in an ill-considered invasion of Sicily to counter a perceived threat from a rising Sparta. In response to Athens’s aggression, Persia funded the Spartan invasion that eventually overthrew the Athenian government. Since then, a dominant power’s overextension of itself against a perceived threat from a rising power has become common enough to merit its own name – the “Thucydides Trap” – named for the Athenian who wrote the history of the Peloponnesian Wars. Today, we see it in Russia’s similarly ill-considered invasion of Ukraine. Our support of Ukraine could lead to strengthening the security of democratic nations and should lead to a careful consideration of our own role in the world.
Might Does Not Make Right - Outlawing Aggressive War. For most of recorded history, nations could legally acquire territory through military conquest. At the end of World War II, the Charter of the United Nations explicitly outlawed such expansions, and created the international crime of aggression. However, a big weakness of the UN system is that it relies on the self-interest of other countries to counter countries who invade their neighbors. In blunt terms, we have no “World Police” to stop aggression. The UN Security Council may choose to authorize military action, and nations may act in defense of each other when their own interests or treaties are threatened. But nothing exists to override a Security Council’s permanent member veto of collective military action or to compel countries to defend each other against a stronger power’s aggression.
Ukraine. Officially, the US engages in military action only when it perceives its critical national security interests are at stake, a standard that avoids overextension. That seemingly high bar has been more flexible in practice, with a variety of interventions for good reasons (like genocide in Kosovo) and bad reasons (like a misperception of the military capacity of Iraq) that don’t directly implicate our national security interests. The Ukrainian War stands out in implicating primarily our interest in supporting an independent, democratic state against aggression from an autocracy, rather than a more concrete humanitarian, economic, or military interest.
While we aren’t directly involved in combat in Ukraine, we are certainly providing them with direct military support, from air defense systems to real-time intelligence. The President has also started to make explicit security guarantees for Taiwan, in the context of Chinese threats. Put another way, while we aren’t becoming the “World Police,” we are increasingly willing to lend military support to constrain countries that believe their imperial ambitions merit an exception to the prohibition on aggression.
Avoiding the Thucydides Trap. Just as Russia’s and China’s yearning for empire may cause them to march into the Thucydides Trap by overextending, our own desire to continue the “American Century” may lead us into misadventure. We have been seen as the “indispensable nation” and have enjoyed robust growth for so long that we don’t always see that the reality of industrialization means we cannot act unilaterally in most circumstances. Consider that in 1960 the US economy was 40% of the entire global economy. Today it is 24%, not because we have stopped growing, but rather because other countries have found the same combination of industry and investment in human potential that we did.
The size of China’s economy approaches our own as it reaches the end of its own period of rapid growth, as does the European Union’s, when considered as a block. German foot-dragging on military support for Ukraine may frustrate us, but we recognize that the support of the German government, and, but extension, the EU, is critical for both strengthening Ukraine’s military resources and making it clear that Europe is as committed to preventing international aggression as the US is. A commitment to collective security allows us to reduce our own military spending over time, reducing the federal deficit while maintaining a strong deterrent to aggression.
Every country’s people consider themselves exceptional. All of them are in one way or another. But, in the end, to succeed on the international stage, every country needs allies that share its values. The best guarantor of American security in the future lies not in yearning for the past days of dominance, but rather in celebrating the success of allies who share our values, and in defending them from threats to their sovereignty.
Other News
Egan Warming Center needs volunteers! Won’t you join us? I’ve moved over to the First Christian Church “awake” site. This smaller site allows those that would like to stay awake to avoid disturbing those who prefer to sleep. For volunteers, this lets you choose whether you prefer a quieter or more lively experience. You can volunteer here.
I’m glad to see PeaceHealth partnering with the Eugene Y on their new health and wellness center.
In other good news, the City of Eugene is moving forward with purchasing the old EWEB headquarters for a new city hall. We explored this when I was on the City Budget Committee, but couldn’t get enough interest to move forward. The EWEB Building has a lovely site that will help the city embrace the river. As Springfield moves forward with its planning for Glenwood, I hope both cities and the University of Oregon will collaborate on a unifying vision for the riverfront from EWEB to Dorris Ranch.
During the pandemic, childhood vaccination rates fell for all non-COVID inoculations. If you need to catch up before exclusion day (February 15), Lane County Public Health can make it easy.
Rep. Julie Fahey is working on a package of reforms to improve the ethical climate in the Legislature, continuing the work I started a few years back. I’m happy to see it moving forward. It’s a long road, but we have to start down it to eventually get to the Legislature the people of Oregon deserve.
The Chinese spy balloon has been in the news recently. The episode bears some striking similarities to the 1960 U-2 shoot down over Russia. The likely outcome is likely to be the same - embarrassment for the party caught violating the airspace of the other country, in this case, China. A typical US response would be to unilaterally reduce the size of the Chinese embassy staff or expel some of their diplomats suspected of abusing their diplomatic status. Still, it is a troubling sign of an increasingly aggressive Chinese military. And, as a reminder, please don’t shoot at mysterious flying objects. We have people who do that.
A quick note here - $5 a month is the lowest amount SubStack allows for paid subscriptions. That's an odd business choice, but I'm stuck with it.
If I had the money I would be happy to help. Unfortunately I don't have the money. I hope you will still let me read your letters.